Mandatory Credit: Photo by Pat Benic/UPI/Shutterstock (13900867e) Kentucky Derby favorite Forte gallops around the track with the Twin Spires in the background during morning training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on Friday, May 5, 2023. The Kentucky Oaks is today with the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6th. Kentucky Derby Week, Louisville, United States – 05 May 2023
Fred Faour: Selections for the Kentucky Derby and undercard stakes. Let’s win some furniture!
Mattress Mack has an awesome promo where if the Kentucky Derby favorite wins you get your furniture free. Check out the flyer below, then let’s look at my picks!
Here are my selections for Derby Day. It includes the undercard stakes. Let’s go!
Race 4, the Grade I Derby City Distaff: Goodnight Olive will be the favorite, and should be after winning seven in a row. But I like No. 1 Hot and Sultry for an upset. She ran behind two of the best distaffers on the planet – Clariere and Secret Oath – in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. Turns back in distance and could surprise. Also 1 for 1 at Churchill.
The picks: 1-2-5-3.
Race 5, the Grade 2 Churchill Mile Distaff Stakes: Hard to get around unbeaten 7-5 favorite Spendarella. The only way to make money is exactas and consider the 6 on the back end.
The picks: 5-2-6-4.
Race 7, the Twin Spires turf: Five and a half furlong turf races are absolute crap shoots. Big Invasion will take most of the money, but we will take a flyer with long shot Oceanic.
The picks: 9-4-10-11.
Race 8, the Pat Day Mile: This is for backup Derby horses who did not have enough points or were not good enough to run a mile and a quarter. Bourbon Bash did not run a step in the Arkansas Derby but was a good fifth in the Rebel where he might have been the best horse. Should be sitting on a big effort.
The picks: 8-12-4-14.
Race 9, the American Turf: Some heavy Todd Pletcher favorites in here, but we will land on 10-1 shot Talk of the Nation, unbeaten in two turf starts at Tampa. Don’t be surprised if you see boxcar payoffs here.
The picks: 4-5-2-7.
Race 10, the Churchill Downs: Stakes This is historically one of the undercard races we murder. However, it will be very hard to get around favored Cody’s Wish. He has been off since winning the BC Dirt Mile in November, but he is 4 for 4 at Churchill, has won seven of his last eight, and the trainer is 23% off long layoffs.
The picks: 7-10-1-2.
Race 11, the Turf Classic: Looks like another chalky race as 4-1 Up To The Mark comes out of a huge third at Keeneland against some of the best milers in America. Stretches back out and looks tough.
The picks: 5-7-10-9.
Race 12, The Kentucky Derby: A lot of people are saying this is wide-open. But I think the race comes down to a few horses. Forte’s late scratch this morning changes things a bit – Tapit Thrice, Angel of Empire, and Kingsbarn are all serious contenders. Tapit should be the favorite. Kingsbarns should have a pace edge, but Tapit or Empire should run him down. Let’s toss a bomber into our plays with No. 8 Mage.
The picks: 14-5-6-8.