Final Four: Betting Trends & Predictions for FAU and San Diego St., Miami vs. UConn

The Final Four officially gets underway when Florida Atlantic (35-3) and San Diego State (31-6) tip off at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday.

One of the two Cinderella stories from this year’s Final Four will play in Monday’s national championship game.

San Diego State was a consensus 2.5-point favorite as of Friday afternoon.

That’s a shift from when it opened at 1.5 at BetMGM, with the Azetcs drawing 60% of the spread-line bets and 75% of the money. However, the most popular Final Four bet at the sportsbook has been FAU’s +130 moneyline, which has shifted from +105 with the Owls backed by 64% of the total bets.

BetRivers’ also reported more spread-line action on San Diego State, which has been supported by 57% of the bets and 56% of the money.

PREDICTION:
It’s true that neither one of these teams should be considered a true shock to reach the Final Four. San Diego State has immense experience in its favor, while FAU has an opportunity to win an incredible 37 games this season.

The Owls have been extremely impressive under pressure, winning several tight games to reach this point. The Aztecs’ bevy of seniors also won’t wilt under the bright lights, and San Diego holds on to win a tight contest and eke out the cover.

–San Diego State 69, Florida Atlantic 66- SDSU -2.5 (-110)

The second half of the national championship game picture will be determined when Miami (29-7) and UConn (29-8) square off in the second game at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday.

UConn was a consensus 5.5-point favorite as of Friday afternoon, and the Huskies are also the heavy favorites to win it all among the Final Four teams.

The line has held steady at BetMGM, where UConn has drawn 63% of the spread-line bets, but the money has been almost evenly split between the teams. Meanwhile, Miami’s +200 moneyline has been the second most Final Four bet at the sportsbook, garnering 63% of the bets and 57% of the money.

Bet Rivers reported 65% of the spread-line bets and 56% of the money on the Huskies, while UConn has been backed by 54 and 66%, respectively, at PointsBet.

PREDICTION:
After winning the ACC regular-season title, Miami has ousted top-seeded Houston and No. 2 Texas en route to its Final Four. The Hurricanes are legit, but they are also playing with a much finer margin for error. UConn has bullied its way to this point, with the Huskies demonstrating why many analysts pegged them a title threat despite being a No. 4 seed. UConn picks up the win, but Miami covers the number in a closely contested matchup.

–UConn 83, Miami 78- Miami +5.5 (-110)

–Field Level Media contributed to this story