Fred Faour: Doing Mack’s Derby promo? Probable favorite Forte is not only talented, he comes out of a race that produces Kentucky Derby winners

As you know by now, Mattress Mack has a great promo where if the favorite wins the Kentucky Derby, you get your furniture for free. Check out the flyer below and then learn how likely it is you could score free furniture. After that, scroll down to find out why Forte, the likely Derby favorite comes out of a key prep race that could increase your chances significantly.

We have written about Forte before, but if you are trying to win free furniture, you will want to know more about him, as long as he stays in the race. Forte won the Florida Derby with a grinding late run. The Florida winners in Kentucky is what we will look at today.

The Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby have been the key preps for Kentucky. Since 1973, the Florida Derby has produced 15 Kentucky Derby winners. But we will focus on what has happened since 2013 when the Derby went to its new points system and produced more consistent runners.

Since then, three Florida Derby winners have gone on to win the roses – Orb in 2013, Nyquist (2016), And Always Dreaming (2017). However, four finished the race in front – Maximum Security (2019) crossed the line first but was disqualified.

With a deeper look, the Florida Derby winners look even better. In 2020, the race was moved to the fall, and the Florida Derby was not really considered a prep. So if we remove that along with the controversial Maximum Security decision – he was clearly the best horse in the race – that makes three out of eight. In addition, there was the Medina Spirit Derby, where the horse was later DQ’d for drug use, but his appearance in the race changed it. Still, Florida Derby winners have been competitive. Last year, White Abarrio had a troubled trip and finished 16th. In 2021, Known Agenda finished ninth in an oddly run race. While 2020 should not count, Tiz the Law ran second. The race produced the three horses that crossed the line first from 2016-2019, with Materiality running sixth in 2019 behind Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

Audible ran third in 2018 behind Triple Crown winner Justify. In 2014, the winner was Constitution, who would miss the Kentucky Derby and the rest of the Triple Crown.

But of the horses that have won, Forte’s profile is much better than most. Like Nyquist, he was a 2-year-old champion. His skill set is more along the lines of Always Dreaming, and he is much more accomplished than even Orb. Only Nyquist had a better record entering the Derby – he was 7 of 7 with six stakes wins. Forte enters 6 of 7 with five stakes wins. His only slip-up was his second start. Like Nyquist, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a 2-year-old.

So if you are doing the promo, you can feel confident that Forte is not only talented, but is coming out of a race that can produce a Derby winner.

And get you free furniture.