Oct 7, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) throws a pitch in the first inning during game one of the Wild Card series against the New York Mets for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 10, 2023
After a tough Sunday saw Dalton Brown’s MLB picks go 1-2, he’s back with another trio of plays for Monday’s MLB action as he looks to improve on a 21-11 mark this season.
1:10 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: White Sox First 5 Innings (-110) at BetMGM
The Chicago White Sox head to Minnesota for Monday afternoon’s series opener with the Twins, and I’m backing the Southsiders to have a lead through the game’s first five innings. White Sox starter Dylan Cease has morphed into one of the best pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and is off to a hot start in 2023 as well. Cease has allowed two earned runs in 11 innings so far, and his Statcast numbers show that his ascent is no fluke. The righty’s fastball ranks in the top 10% of pitchers in both spin rate and velocity, helping Cease also rank in the top 10% of pitchers in strikeout rate and whiff rate. Cease saw the Twins twice last year, completing 16 innings over two starts while allowing just three hits, zero runs, and striking out 15. Minnesota is sending veteran righty Kenta Maeda to the mound. Maeda looked strong in his first start for the Twins this season after returning from injury, but one start against Miami isn’t enough to make this first 5 innings moneyline make sense at -110 in each direction. The White Sox crushed Maeda back in 2021, scoring 10 earned runs against him in just 9.2 innings of work. I’m not convinced Chicago’s offense will bludgeon Kenta Maeda to that extent Monday afternoon, but a couple runs should do the trick with Cease pitching.
6:10 p.m. CT: San Diego Padres at New York Mets
The Pick: Padres First 5 Innings +0.5 (-128) at FanDuel
The San Diego Padres will continue their east coast road trip when they begin a series against the Mets in New York on Monday night. Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer will pitch in what looks like a battle of aces at first glance, but I see a clear advantage for Darvish and the Friars. Darvish carved up the Mets last season in three starts against them, stringing together 14 innings of one-run ball during the regular season and hurling seven innings while allowing just one run in the Postseason. In contrast, Max Scherzer has struggled against the Padres since 2021. The Padres have scored at least four runs against Mad Max in four of seven starts during that span, including stamping seven runs on him in the 2022 Postseason. Scherzer is showing signs of slowing down in 2023 as well – the Marlins and Brewers pushed around the 38-year-old to the tone of eight earned runs allowed over 11.1 innings in his first two starts, and he’s already surrendered four homers. Matchup history leads me to believe this line should be flipped, and San Diego should be favored, so I’ll gladly take the half-run through the first five innings with the Padres.
8:45 p.m. CT: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-130) at Bet365
The Dodgers and Giants will renew their rivalry for the first time this season on Monday night in San Francisco, and both starting pitchers should have their way early. Logan Webb’s numbers through two starts are not pretty, but the underlying stats show that he’s been quite unlucky – through 11 innings of work, Webb’s 2.88 xERA speaks to how much better he’s pitched than his actual ERA of 6.45 suggests. Webb also has yet to pitch at Oracle Park this season, where his career ERA is 3.01 compared to 4.07 everywhere else. Julio Urias has been his usual, dominant self for the Dodgers so far, allowing two runs over 12 innings in two starts. The lefty does not mind pitching away from Dodger Stadium, either – last season, Urias’ ERA in road games was just 1.94. He also dominated San Francisco last season, allowing just three earned runs over 30 innings of work. The Giants are in a uniquely difficult spot against the polished lefty due to circumstance, too – San Francisco has only had 37 at-bats against southpaws all season to date. The Giants have four hits against lefties in 2023 and have struck out 16 times.