Apr 11, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (25) bats against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 18, 2023
After yet another game Dalton Brown picked was postponed on Monday, he salvaged a 1-1 split on his remaining picks to go 31-22 on the MLB season so far. Dalton is back with three more picks for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
6:05 p.m. CT: Anaheim Angels at New York Yankees
The Pick: OVER 9 (-105) at BetMGM
The Angels will continue their east coast trip with a three-game series at Yankee Stadium starting Tuesday night, and I expect plenty of runs in the series opener. Temperatures will be chilly in the Bronx, hovering in the mid-50s at game time – but 15-25 MPH winds are projected to be blowing out toward right-center field. That wind, plus two very shaky starting pitchers, leads me to expect plenty of offense. Clarke Schmidt (8.44 ERA), New York’s young righty, has yet to find it at the MLB level. Schmidt’s contact profile lands him in the bottom 10% of hard hit percentage against, xERA, xBA, and xSLG, while his whiff rate ranks him in the 17th percentile among MLB pitchers. He isn’t missing enough bats, and the contact being made against him is exceptionally hard. Mike Trout and Hunter Renfroe both took days off on Monday in Boston, so expect a fresh Angels squad for Tuesday night’s game. New York’s offense will contend with Angels starter Jose Suarez (10.80 ERA), whose numbers are even worse than Schmidt’s so far this season. Suarez has allowed 18 hits in just 8.1 innings this season and is running up against a Yankees’ lineup that ranked third in baseball last season in wRC+ against lefties. Anaheim’s bullpen is a mess after an afternoon in Boston with several delays and Shohei Ohtani’s early exit as well. Runs, runs, and more runs for everyone at Yankee Stadium Tuesday night.
6:10 p.m. CT: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Twins moneyline (-109) at BetRivers
The Minnesota Twins will start a three-game series at Fenway Park with the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night, and I give the edge to the side that is better rested and sending a more reliable starting pitcher to the mound. Boston finished its four-game set with the Angels with a twice-delayed, rainy loss that saw both bullpens taxed and likely leaves the Red Sox tired heading into Tuesday. Chris Sale will take the mound for the Sox, and while his name carries plenty of weight with a casual baseball fan, he hasn’t looked like Chris Sale of old this season at all. Sale’s fastball is down on average from 95.2 mph to 93.4 mph since 2018, and it has shown in his results. The lefty’s 11.25 ERA is only slightly a fluke, as his 6.85 xERA isn’t a great look either. He’s allowing more than two baserunners per inning this season. Sonny Gray, meanwhile, is allowing an average of exactly one baserunner per inning and has posted above-average Statcast metrics across the board. Minnesota is the better team overall for my money and enters with the better starting pitcher and the more rested and effective bullpen.
8:40 p.m. CT: Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Cubs F5 -0.5 (-105) at BetMGM
The Chicago Cubs are on fire, and the 3-14 Oakland A’s felt the brunt of the Cubs’ hot streak in Monday night’s 10-1 bludgeoning. With lefty Ken Waldichuk heading to the mound for Oakland in game two against Marcus Stroman, I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Stroman has been exceptional through three starts, allowing just two runs over 18 innings of work. He has 20 strikeouts, just five walks, and has yet to allow a home run in 2023. On the other side, Waldichuk has struggled mightily. The young lefty has allowed 17 runs in 15 innings of work on seven homers, seven walks, and 22 hits. This bet is a simple one – better lineup, hotter lineup, better starting pitcher. The Cubs should be a much larger favorite over the first five innings, and I am not sure why they aren’t.