Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 23, 2023

Apr 20, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) is congratulated by third baseman Eduardo Escobar (10) after scoring against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 23, 2023

Looking to improve on a 37-31 season record, Dalton Brown is back with three more picks from two MLB games on Sunday’s slate, each of which backs a road team with a starting pitching advantage.

12:40 p.m. CT: Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians

The Pick: Marlins First 5 Innings moneyline (-115)

The Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians will cap off their three-game series with Sunday afternoon’s matinee, which matches up lefties Jesus Luzardo and Logan Allen on the mound. Luzardo has been excellent, posting strong Statcast figures alongside stellar results. Luzardo’s 2.74 ERA is backed up by a 2.84 xERA, and the lefty has cut down on his recently. He’s walked two or fewer batters in three straight starts after walking four in his first start of the season. Miami’s been the better of these two offenses against lefties this season (102 wRC+ vs. 87), and the Fish are taking on a pitcher in Logan Allen who is making his MLB debut. Allen is the Guardians’ eighth-ranked prospect overall, but his 4.75 ERA across two levels of Minor League Baseball last season is somewhat concerning despite his strong start to 2023 with the Columbus Clippers. Jesus Luzardo is easily the more polished of these two starters, so let’s keep it simple and back Miami over the game’s first five innings.

6:08 p.m. CT: New York Mets at San Francisco Giants

The Picks: Mets moneyline (-115) at WynnBet, Mets First 5 Innings moneyline (-118) at BetRivers

The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will complete their four-game series Sunday night at Oracle Park, and I’m backing the Mets to come away with their third win. A pair of righties will take the mound in New York’s Tylor Megill and San Francisco’s Ross Stripling. Both lineups have performed well against right-handed pitching so far this season, but I am a much bigger believer in the sustainability of the Mets’ offensive success. Ross Stripling has given up an incredible amount of hard contact this season, as evidenced by his 8.90 ERA and .682 expected slugging percentage allowed. Stripling is also not fully built up as a starter, so it’s difficult to imagine him pitching more than three or four innings – when he exits, San Francisco’s struggling bullpen (5.47 ERA, 27th-best in MLB) will struggle to hold down the Mets offense. Tylor Megill has pitched well for the Mets this season, and although his expected metrics suggest he’s due for negative regression, I trust the Mets’ righty a lot more than I do Stripling on the other side. Megill has completed at least five innings in all four of his starts to date and has yet to allow more than three runs in a start. When he exits, the Mets bullpen that will enter the game is sporting a solid 3.26 ERA this season. The Mets have the better lineup, a slightly better starting pitcher on the mound, and the much better bullpen between these two, making minus-115 entirely too cheap for the full game, and minus-118 is too cheap in the game’s first five innings.

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