Apr 21, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) celebrates with Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) after hitting a home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the third inningat American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 24, 2023
After a two-day cold streak dropped Dalton Brown to 37-34 on the MLB season, he’s back with three more picks on Monday’s slate to kick off the new week.
5:10 p.m. CT: Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+110) at BetRivers
The Colorado Rockies will take on the Cleveland Guardians in a three-game series starting Monday night at Progressive Field, and I’m backing the home Guardians to handle business. Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been a mess of late, striking out just three batters while walking seven and allowing 14 earned runs in his last two starts, totaling just 5.2 innings. Gomber has picked up losses in all four of his starts this season while pitching to a 12.12 ERA, and his xERA of 8.63 doesn’t provide a ton of solace. Guardians starter Cal Quantrill is headed in a much more positive direction of late, completing six innings in each of his last two starts while allowing three total runs. Quantrill’s 4.65 xERA is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Rockies’ 27th-ranked offense in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I see a moderate edge for the Guardians over the game’s first five innings, but that edge continues to grow as the game goes along. Cleveland’s bullpen has produced an ERA a full run better than Colorado’s this season, and the Guards entered 2023 with much higher expectations overall. Let’s back the better overall team at home with starting pitching and bullpen advantages.
5:35 p.m. CT: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Boston Red Sox team total OVER 4 (+102) at FanDuel
The Boston Red Sox will kick off a three-game set at Baltimore Monday night, and I trust Boston’s offense to stay hot. The Red Sox have scored four or more runs in seven consecutive games and 10 of their last 12, making a compelling argument that this bet is worth making blindly – luckily for us, we have additional information to back it up, too. Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound against the Red Sox offense, a righty the Red Sox have feasted against since he entered the league. Kremer is 0-4 all-time with a 7.76 ERA against Boston, including an outing on April 1 that saw him surrender five runs in three innings – including two homers. Kremer’s 6.91 xERA solidifies the legitimacy of his poor start to the season, and Boston’s offense has been a machine, even in losses.
6:07 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -0.5 (-110) at BetMGM
The Toronto Blue Jays, winners of two of three over the weekend at Yankee Stadium, will look to continue their winning ways as they return home for a three-game set with the Chicago White Sox starting Monday night. The White Sox were swept in Tampa Bay, and I expect their frustrations to continue north of the border in a matchup of starters heading in different directions. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt’s numbers look ugly at the moment, but he’s shown steady improvement from start to start. His first start of the season was a nine-run disaster, but he’s since pitched 18.1 innings while allowing just four earned runs. In his last start, Bassitt pitched into the seventh inning in Houston while allowing just three hits and a walk without a run crossing the plate. Lance Lynn, meanwhile, allowed 10 hits and five walks in his last start. Overall, Lynn has allowed 16 earned runs in just 15.2 innings of work – and he’s allowed five homers along the way. Add in that Toronto ranks ninth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while Toronto ranks 18th, and there’s a clear edge on the Blue Jays in this starting pitching matchup.