Apr 24, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) runs the bases after hitting a three run triple against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 25, 2023
After breaking entirely even with a win, loss, and push on Monday’s action, Dalton Brown is back with three MLB bets for Tuesday as he hopes to improve on a 38-35 record this season.
5:35 p.m. CT: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: OVER 8.5 (-122) at FanDuel
The Boston Red Sox jumped out to a 4-0 lead before falling 5-4 to the O’s on Monday, and these American League East foes will be back at it Tuesday evening from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In Tuesday’s matchup of right-handed starters, I see plenty of runs being scored. The Red Sox have scored four or more runs in eight straight games and 12 of their last 14, and they’ll take on a young righty in Kyle Bradish who finished 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA against them in 2022. Bradish looked strong in his first full start of this season, but I’m far from bought in – especially against a lineup as hot as the Red Sox. If Boston scores four or more runs for a ninth straight game, I love our chances of cashing this over – especially given what we’ve seen from Red Sox starter Corey Kluber. Kluber has been a mess, allowing four or more earned runs in three of four starts so far including five runs over 3.1 innings of work versus Baltimore on March 30. The veteran faced the Orioles plenty last season as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays and struggled more and more with each outing. In his last three starts against Baltimore as a Ray, Kluber surrendered 16 runs on 25 hits in 15.2 innings. We should see plenty of runs Tuesday evening in Baltimore.
5:40 p.m. CT: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Rays First 5 Innings -0.5 (-105) at BetMGM
The Tampa Bay Rays improved to 14-0 at home this season with Monday night’s 8-3 win over the Houston Astros, and I am backing the Rays to jump out to a lead once again in Tuesday’s first five innings behind starter Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen has been elite thus far this season, posting a 2.01 ERA while allowing zero earned runs in three of his four starts to date. He saw Houston twice late last season and allowed a total of six hits in 13 innings of work. At home at Tropicana Field, Rasmussen pitched to a stellar 2.24 ERA last season – so far in 2023, he’s pitched five scoreless frames there. The Astros lineup is impressive but severely hobbled at the moment without Yordan Alvarez or Jose Altuve. Those losses render Houston mortal, while Tampa Bay has hardly looked it so far, especially against righties. The Rays lead baseball with a ridiculous 152 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season and are taking on a starter in Luis Garcia, who has struggled in three of four starts this season. Garcia was impressive in his last outing, but I need more than one stellar start to buy in on his ability to pitch well without his full windup available to him. The Astros will be more than fine as the season goes along and probably end up better than Tampa Bay before all is said and done. But on April 25, the Rays are the team worth backing.
6:20 p.m. CT: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
The Pick: Braves -1.5 (-115) at DraftKings
The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves will continue their four-game set from Truist Park on Tuesday night after an 11-0 drubbing by the Braves on Monday, and I’m backing Atlanta to continue its dominant ways. Atlanta has owned Miami for years – in 2022, the Braves went 13-6 versus the Marlins, and since 2020 are 33-19 against their divisional rivals from South Florida. Steady right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound for Atlanta, hoping to improve on an 11-5 record with a 3.96 ERA against the Fish for his career. Morton also defeated the Marlins in both of his opportunities last season. He’s found his rhythm of late, pitching 12 innings while allowing three earned runs over his last two starts. The Marlins will send rookie Bryan Hoeing to the mound, a young righty who struggled in limited MLB action last season. Hoeing pitched to a 12.08 ERA last season, surrendering 17 runs in 12.2 innings of work, including five home runs. The tired Marlins bullpen that will follow him has allowed a 25th-ranked 4.55 xFIP this season, a significant disadvantage against Atlanta’s sixth-ranked unit that has worked only one inning over the last two days. The Braves should be more expensive on the runline than they are here.