Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 27, 2023

Dalton Brown is on a roll after a 3-0 day Wednesday improved his season-long MLB record to 43-36, and he’s back with three more picks for Thursday’s MLB slate.

2:45 p.m. CT: St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

The Pick: Giants moneyline (-130) at PointsBet

The San Francisco Giants will look to complete a four-game sweep over the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday afternoon, and starting pitcher Logan Webb is just the man for the job. Webb loves pitching at Oracle Park, as evidenced by his 2.08 ERA at home this season compared to 6.11 on the road. The trend goes back further than that, though – Webb is 18-11 with a 2.96 ERA in his career at home and just 14-12 with a 4.11 ERA away from the Bay. The Giants have won five straight, largely because their lineup has been mashing righties (144 wRC+, third-best in MLB) and their bullpen has been stellar of late (3.37 xFIP over the last two weeks, fifth-best in MLB). They’ll take on a vulnerable righty Thursday in Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who has endured a nightmare season so far. Mikolas’ putrid 7.46 ERA is backed up by a 7.31 xERA, numbers that make sense given that he’s allowed at least nine hits in three of his five starts and five homers over his last 16 innings of work. Put simply, the righty isn’t fooling anyone – he’s inducing fewer swings and misses than 95% of MLB pitchers, allowing a higher xSLG than 95% of MLB pitchers, and allowing a higher xBA than 98% of MLB pitchers. San Francisco should stay hot and take the sweep from St. Louis on Thursday behind its home-happy righty in Webb.

3:07 p.m. CT: Oakland Athletics at Anaheim Angels

The Pick: Angels -1.5 (-140) at Caesars

The minus-140 odds here are more expensive than I usually seek to bet with, but this is too good to pass up. Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels, and so far this season he’s been the surest bet of any starting pitcher in the bigs. Ohtani has allowed just two runs over 28 innings this season, including six shutout frames at Oakland to start his 2023 campaign in which he allowed just two hits while striking out 10. Oakland (5-21) is putrid in general, and it has never solved Ohtani since his arrival to the United States (2.24 ERA over 63.2 innings). Young left-hander JP Sears (5.14 xERA) pitches for the A’s. Sears has allowed three or more runs in three of his four starts, and we may not need more than that – but if we do, Oakland’s bullpen (7.03 ERA, worst in MLB) will surely oblige. The Angels have been crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 129 wRC+, so Sears may not last long anyway against Anaheim’s army of righties (Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury, and Gio Urshela). Sears’ only lefty-lefty matchup in the Angels’ top-six hitters? Shohei Ohtani. Don’t be surprised if this closes with a price closer to minus-180.

5:40 p.m. CT: Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

The Pick: Orioles First 5 Innings -0.5 (+100) at BetMGM

The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers will open up a four-game series in Detroit on Thursday after the O’s swept the Tigers just last weekend in Baltimore. Orioles starter Kyle Gibson pitched exceptionally well in the middle game of those three, allowing just one run on two hits while pitching into the seventh inning against the Tigers’ hapless lineup. Struggling against right-handed pitching is nothing new for Detroit – the Tigers rank 29th in wRC+ against righties this season after finishing dead-last in that category last season. Tigers starter Joey Wentz opposed Kyle Gibson in that game and was shelled – Baltimore put up five runs on six hits over the game’s first four innings, handing the young lefty his third loss in four starts. The Orioles rank sixth in baseball with a stellar 123 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and have won 12 of their last 15 games. Baltimore should stay hot early and deliver us a winner through five innings.