Sep 3, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 5, 2023
After Dalton Brown’s hot streak ended abruptly on Tuesday, he’s back with another three matinee MLB picks for Wednesday, aiming to improve on a 12-6 record.
11:35 a.m. CT: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Cubs moneyline (-105) at BetMGM
The Cubs and Reds will play the rubber game of their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon from Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, and I’m riding with Chicago to take the game and the series on the road. Chicago turns to Marcus Stroman on the bump hoping for a repeat of his impressive Opening Day start. Stroman turned in six scoreless innings against Milwaukee in that one and now gets his shot at a Reds lineup that finished 2022 just 28th against righties in wRC+. I think Stroman will carry the Cubs deep into Wednesday afternoon’s game before turning it over to the stronger of the two bullpens. Hunter Greene pitches for Cincinnati, and while the righty is oozing with potential, he’s yet to find any consistency at the MLB level. Pittsburgh had eight baserunners in just 3.1 innings against Greene, whose struggles with efficiency could also press Cincinnati’s bullpen into this game early. Chicago has the advantage with its starter, lineup, and bullpen here, so a moneyline price like this one is a bargain.
12:05 p.m. CT: Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals
The Pick: Rays -1.5 (-125) at PointsBet
Tampa Bay will look to complete a sweep of the lowly Nationals on Wednesday afternoon and is sending one of MLB’s best pitchers to the mound to oppose the league’s worst. Patrick Corbin proved in his Opening Day start versus the Braves that bettors should expect more of the same from the lefty in 2023 that they saw in 2022. Corbin allowed 10 baserunners in just three innings to Atlanta, par for the course for a pitcher who posted a league-worst 6.41 xERA last season. Corbin takes on a Rays team that was well above average against lefties (108 wRC+) in 2022 and is off to a red-hot 5-0 start to 2023. Lefty Shane McClanahan had his way with Detroit on Opening Day, cruising through six scoreless innings while striking out six. Washington’s lineup fared even worse against lefties last season than Detroit’s. McClanahan was excellent last season, posting a 2.79 xERA, a 2.08 ERA on the road, and a 2.39 ERA in day games. Baseball games don’t get much more lopsided than this one, and I think laying the run and a half should cost a lot more than 25 cents here.
1:10 p.m. CT: San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: White Sox First 5 Innings moneyline (-120) at PointsBet
Starters Dylan Cease and Logan Webb will tangle in Wednesday afternoon’s series finale between the Giants and White Sox. Both pitchers started on Opening Day but saw wildly different results. Cease dominated the mighty Houston Astros, throwing 6.1 innings while allowing just two hits, one earned run, and no walks while striking out 10. For Cease, that type of dominance was nothing new. Last season, the righty finished in the top 10% of pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed, xERA, xBA against, xSLG against, whiff rate, fastball velocity, and fastball spin rate. Put simply, Cease has been nasty – and last year’s numbers (14-8, 2.20 ERA) reflected it. He picked up a win over the Giants last season, completing five innings while giving up just one run. Logan Webb, pitching for San Francisco on Wednesday, is a very good pitcher in his own right – but the advanced metrics Baseball Savant measures called for negative regression most of last season, and some of that seemed to arrive as the Yankees pushed him around on Opening Day. The White Sox pushed around Logan Webb for five runs last season, knocking the righty out on July 2 in San Francisco. For his career, Webb’s ERA is almost a run higher (4.00 vs. 3.01) when pitching away from Oracle Park. This matchup of aces favors the Southsiders, who I think will lead after five.