Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 6, 2023

Mar 31, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May (85) throws to the plate in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 6, 2023

Dalton Brown bounced back with a 2-0 day on Wednesday, improving his record on MLB bets this season to 14-6. Thursday’s schedule is a lot lighter across Major League Baseball, but Dalton has three more plays ready to go nonetheless.

12:10 p.m. CT: Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

The Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-124) at BetRivers

The Detroit Tigers will welcome the Boston Red Sox to Comerica Park for Opening Day, and I like the resurgent Tigers to go toe-to-toe with the Red Sox on Thursday afternoon. Detroit’s bats came alive over the last three days in Houston, taking two of three from the defending champs while posting a higher xBA (expected batting average) than the Astros did in Wednesday’s loss. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are starting to blossom into the offensive players Detroit thought it had when they were prospects, and the Tigers’ offense is reaping the benefits. Neither Chris Sale nor Spencer Turnbull pitched well in their first outings, and both have hardly pitched in recent years due to a myriad of injuries. Still, Chris Sale’s name seems to carry immense weight – and in this instance, I think it’s providing value on the Tigers. The lack of innings for these two pitchers in recent seasons is creating higher variance, and it isn’t easy to realistically ascertain which of them is better at this moment. The Red Sox lineup might have a slight advantage, but I think Detroit’s pitching staff is as good if not better than Boston’s, so this run and a half are too juicy to pass up.

6:20 p.m. CT: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

The Pick: Braves First 5 Innings -0.5 (-110) at PointsBet

The Atlanta Braves will host the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in their home opener on Thursday night, and I think Spencer Strider will rise to the occasion over the game’s first five innings. Strider was dominant in his first start, pitching six scoreless innings while striking out nine Nationals and surrendering just three hits. He was especially excellent pitching at home in Atlanta last season, where he went 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. The Padres have not seen Strider since Atlanta converted him to a starting pitcher either, which can only help the righty on Thursday. On the flip side, San Diego sends Blake Snell to the mound after he struggled in his first start of the season. Colorado scored three runs on six hits in 4.1 innings against Snell, handing him his first loss. The lefty struggled before the All-Star Break each of the last two seasons, so his early season struggles are worth monitoring once again in 2023. While San Diego was merely average (101 wRC+) against righties last season, Atlanta was dominant (118) against lefties. I’ll take the Braves to get the best of San Diego through the first five innings in front of a capacity crowd.

8:40 p.m. CT: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Pick: Dodgers First 5 Innings -0.5 (-115) at DraftKings

The Los Angeles Dodgers are hitting the road for the first time this season to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night for Arizona’s home opener. While the crowd ought to be large, history tells us that it will likely be made up more of Dodgers fans than Diamondbacks fans anyway. The pitching matchup of Dustin May versus Merrill Kelly just happened last Friday at Chavez Ravine, and both pitchers threw well – but in Kelly’s case, it was more smoke and mirrors than anything. Despite Kelly giving up no runs, Baseball Savant graded him out with an 11.63 expected ERA after he allowed seven baserunners in just 3.2 innings. Dustin May, meanwhile, thoroughly dominated Arizona through seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits. Los Angeles thinks the young righty is due for a breakout season, and all signs point toward the organization being right. Merrill Kelly may have tiptoed around disaster against L.A. once, but his 0-9 record with a 5.64 ERA suggests he’ll struggle to do so again. Give me the Dodgers to lead – potentially in blowout fashion – through five innings.

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