Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 8, 2023

Mar 27, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson (31) pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for April 8, 2023

With a full slate of games on tap for Saturday, Dalton Brown looks to rebound from a 1-2 Friday with a trio of MLB plays he likes to cash.

3:10 p.m. CT: Miami Marlins at New York Mets

The Pick: Mets First 5 Innings -0.5 (+100) at PointsBet

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins continue their bevy of early season games on Saturday, and I’m enthusiastically backing Kodai Senga over Trevor Rogers for the second time in the last week. Mets starter Kodai Senga looked as good as advertised in his debut, controlling the Marlins’ lineup with ease over five-plus innings. Trevor Rogers, meanwhile, was touched up for four runs in 4.1 innings and picked up his first loss. As I wrote about last week, I think Senga is not being valued at his potential, while Trevor Rogers has yet to show signs of recovery after a down year in 2022. The price has changed a bit with the venue switching to New York, but I’m happy to back Senga and the Metropolitans to lead after five innings.

5:35 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pick: OVER 8.5 (-115) at DraftKings

After a high-scoring affair on Friday saw Pittsburgh topple Chicago 12-9, the Pirates and White Sox are in line for another potentially high-scoring matchup on Saturday. Starters Mike Clevinger and Vince Velasquez have struggled over the last two seasons, each allowing xERA’s of 4.65 or higher in both 2021 and 2022. Velasquez allowed higher average exit velocities and higher barrel rates than any pitcher in baseball last season and takes on a much more potent offense in the White Sox than he did in his first start versus the Reds. Mike Clevinger’s 2022 struggles were especially pronounced on the road last season, where he pitched to a 5.46 ERA compared to 2.88 at home. Pittsburgh’s lineup has seemingly reinvented itself with acquisitions like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen, while Bryan Reynolds is producing at an MVP rate, and Oneil Cruz remains an absurd talent. Both bullpens are taxed after Friday’s shootout, so look for these clubs to eclipse 8.5 runs comfortably.

8:07 p.m. CT: Toronto Blue Jays at Anaheim Angels

The Pick: Angels First 5 Innings (-108) at BetRivers

The Toronto Blue Jays and Anaheim Angels continue their weekend series from Angel Stadium on Saturday night, and I’m excited by the opportunity to fade Jose Berrios. Berrios makes his second start for Toronto after a disastrous opener that saw him allow eight earned runs in 5.2 innings of work against the Royals. The start continued a disturbing trend for the righty, who pitched to a 6.92 ERA last August and a 5.61 ERA last September. Berrios’ start in Anaheim last season was a disaster, as he allowed six earned runs in just 2.2 innings, including a pair of home runs hit by Shohei Ohtani. Speaking of continued trends, Tyler Anderson’s first start of the season for the Angels made his phenomenal one-year stint with the Dodgers look sustainable. Anderson hurled six scoreless innings in Oakland, an appropriate encore act after 2022 saw him produce career-bests in virtually every category Statcast measures. I do not trust the Angels’ bullpen, but this starting pitching matchup is much of a mismatch slanted in the home team’s favor than meets the eye.

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