Apr 25, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for March 30, 2023
After a 1-1 night in the NBA, I’ve got three picks on Thursday’s Opening Day action across Major League Baseball. If you’re looking for season-long futures, this article from Wednesday is your best bet.
12:05 p.m. CT: San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees
The Pick: Yankees first 5 innings -0.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Gerrit Cole toes the rubber for the Yankees on Opening Day in the Bronx, and he’ll take on a middling San Francisco Giants lineup. Cole struggled on Opening Day in 2022 against a Red Sox lineup that has given him trouble over the years, but San Francisco hasn’t seen much of the veteran righty. I’m expecting a solid outing from Cole, whose 3.31 xERA last season suggests he’s due for a small amount of positive regression. Logan Webb gets the start for San Francisco, and he will likely experience regression in the opposite direction this season. Webb finished below average among MLB pitchers in most Baseball Savant categories last season, and comparing his 3.59 xERA to the 2.90 mark he actually produced paints a clear picture. Add in that Webb is pitching at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium on Thursday, and the regression monster could come for him rather quickly. New York has the better lineup and the better pitcher on the mound on Opening Day. It should be enough to stake them to a lead after five innings.
1:05 p.m. CT: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
The Pick: Braves team total over 4.5 (-125) at Caesars
Patrick Corbin was arguably Major League Baseball’s worst starting pitcher in 2022, and I am thrilled about the opportunity to fade him on Opening Day against a potent Braves lineup. Atlanta faced Patrick Corbin for 14.1 innings in total last season and amassed 16 runs on 27 hits. The Braves ought to feast on the veteran lefty early, and will have chances to add runs against a young, gettable bullpen when Corbin departs.
3:10 p.m. CT: New York Mets at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Mets moneyline (-120) at BetMGM
The Mets and Marlins will tangle in a battle of aces on Thursday afternoon in South Florida, and I think New York has the edge. It is no secret that Sandy Alcantara enters 2023 off of an NL Cy Young-winning campaign, or that he boasts electric stuff. But in order for the Marlins and Mets to be as close to a pick’em as they are, one would have to assume New York isn’t starting a pitcher with the pedigree of Max Scherzer. Despite Alcantara’s well-deserved accolades in 2022, Max Scherzer actually posted a lower xERA (2.87 to 2.92) than Alcantara did. The Mets have the far superior lineup, and even without Edwin Diaz, their bullpen is also better than Miami’s. Max Scherzer is 8-4 with a 2.40 ERA over his career at LoanDepot Park, and the Marlins are a team he’s dominated throughout his career. Even at the height of Sandy Alcantara’s powers in 2022, the Mets touched him up for four or more earned runs in two of their four chances to face him. New York should be a bigger favorite.