May 9, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Jake Bauers (61) celebrates his two run home run against the Oakland Athletics in the dugout with teammates during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 10, 2023
Hoping to improve on a 61-58 overall MLB record, Dalton Brown is back with three daytime plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
11:35 a.m. CT: Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
The Pick: OVER 9 (-120) at BetMGM
After the A’s and Yankees have combined for double-digit runs on back-to-back nights in the Bronx, a pair of struggling young arms will take the mound in Wednesday’s matinee to finish up the three-game set. Kyle Muller pitches for Oakland, a pitcher whose 7.59 xERA suggests he’s still due for negative regression despite his 6.62 actual ERA. Muller has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts, seven or more hits in four of five starts, and at least one home run in five straight starts. He walks too many batters and is giving up an explosive profile of hard contact, per Baseball Savant. The A’s league-worst bullpen will follow Muller into the game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see New York cash this total on its own. On the other side, Jhony Brito will pitch for the Yankees. Brito’s 6.87 xERA is only a small improvement over Muller, and the righty has allowed 17 earned runs over his last 16.2 innings of work. On a warm, sunny day in the Bronx, the ball ought to carry well – and both of these pitchers will need to have their heads on swivels to watch them go.
12:10 p.m. CT: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Tigers First 5 Innings moneyline (+105) at BetMGM
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians have split the first two games of this three-game set, and they’ll finish things up with a day game Wednesday. An eighth-inning run doomed our Tigers +1.5 bet on Tuesday night, but I’m going back to the well with Detroit without hesitation here. The Tigers are turning to dominant lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has pitched to a 1.81 ERA (2.70 xERA) this season and tossed eight scoreless frames when he saw the Guardians in April. He’s allowed either zero or one earned run in five straight starts, and Cleveland’s offense ranks just 27th in MLB in wRC+ versus lefties. Guardians righty Peyton Battenfield has been reasonably fine in terms of his traditional stats, but his xERA of 6.32 paints a much bleaker picture than his actual 4.07 mark. Detroit’s lineup struggled to push runs across against Shane Bieber on Tuesday, but not for a lack of traffic on the basepaths – the Tigers tagged Bieber for seven hits, staying in the offensive rhythm they’ve been in for a couple of weeks now. Detroit produced a .282 xBA on Tuesday compared to .214 for Cleveland and hit five of the game’s six hardest-hit balls by exit velocity. If the Tigers can scratch across even a run or two over Wednesday’s first five innings, I think we will be in great shape.
3:07 p.m. CT: Houston Astros at Anaheim Angels
The Pick: Astros moneyline (-115) at DraftKings
The Astros and Angels have split the first two games of their three-game set from Angel Stadium, and I think Houston finishes with a series win Wednesday afternoon. Griffin Canning’s Baseball Savant page is full of blue (below-average) numbers, and his results back it up. Canning was lit up for five runs in as many innings last week at St. Louis and overall holds a 5.38 xERA. He holds a 9.22 ERA in 13.2 innings against the Astros as well. On the other side, Cristian Javier has been a consistently solid cog in an Astros rotation in desperate need of stability. His WHIP is a career-low 1.06, meaning he is keeping opposing traffic off the basepaths effectively – and as a result, he’s seen more than three runs scored against him just once this season. Javier is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA in his career against the Angels, striking out 52 batters in 31.2 innings while walking only nine.