Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 11, 2023

After a 3-0 Wednesday got Dalton Brown back on track, he is looking to improve on his 64-58 MLB record with three plays on Thursday’s smaller baseball schedule.

1:10 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

The Pick: OVER 9.5 (-105) at FanDuel

The Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox in the final game of their four-game series Thursday afternoon at Kauffman Stadium, and the final game of a 10-game homestand for Kansas City. On the homestand, the Royals lineup has been hitting the cover off of the ball – Kansas City is averaging seven runs per game over its last nine. Despite that offensive production, the Royals are just 4-5 on the homestand because of a pitching staff that is giving up runs like it is going out of style. Brady Singer starts for Kansas City Thursday, and he is unlikely to improve the Royals’ fortunes in run prevention. Singer owns an 8.82 ERA this season, having allowed five or more runs in five of his six starts – and eight runs on two different occasions. His contact profile is the worst in baseball, per Baseball Savant. Righty Mike Clevinger pitches for the White Sox, a veteran whose best days are clearly behind him, as evidenced by a 4.96 xERA. Despite 15 strikeouts and two walks over his last two starts, Clevinger has still allowed six earned runs over his last 11 innings. Both bullpens are struggling, and on an 82-degree, humid day in Kansas City, the ball should be flying all over the yard.

1:10 p.m. CT: San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins

The Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-132) at FanDuel

The San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins have split the first two games of a very competitive three-game series, and Yu Darvish and Bailey Ober will toe the rubber in Thursday afternoon’s finale. Both starting pitchers have put up excellent numbers so far this season. Darvish, who starts for San Diego, pitched 6.2 strong innings against the Dodgers in his last start and continued to lower his xERA, which now sits at an excellent 3.14. He’s allowed just one earned run in four of his six starts this season and has walked just one batter over his last two starts. Bailey Ober’s 0.98 ERA this season is other-worldly and clearly unsustainable, but his xERA of 3.00 shows that he’s pitching exceptionally well nonetheless. Ober has allowed no more than one run in any of his three starts this season and pitched seven stellar, scoreless innings on the road in Cleveland last time out. Both of these lineups have been below average against right-handed pitching this season as well. San Diego and Minnesota also have seen excellent work from their bullpens in recent weeks, but both teams have exhausted high-leverage arms over the last two days. Let’s stick to the first five innings and trust both pitchers to get this game moving at a brisk pace.

8:40 p.m. CT: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-132) at FanDuel

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants will begin a four-game series Thursday night from Chase Field in Phoenix, and I’m backing lefty Tommy Henry and the youthful Diamondbacks. Arizona has been the better of these two teams all season, and Thursday’s splits tell me the wrong team is favored. San Francisco ranks just 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and Henry is due for clear positive regression (ERA 5.17 vs. xERA 3.61). Arizona ranks sixth in baseball in wRC+ against righties, and Giants starter Alex Cobb is an obvious candidate for negative regression (ERA 2.01 vs. xERA 3.77). The sample size is larger with Cobb, so I do give him the slight edge between these starters – but that small edge is not nearly enough to support San Francisco being a favorite here. The Giants’ bullpen ranks 29th in MLB in ERA since April 22, and was just beaten to a pulp by a bad Nationals lineup on Wednesday. The wrong team is favored here, and I don’t think you can go wrong either taking the run and a half or betting Arizona at plus-money on the moneyline.