Hoping to improve on a 67-64 record this MLB season, Dalton Brown is back with three picks for Sunday’s baseball slate.
12:40 p.m. CT: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
The Pick: OVER 8 (-115) at FanDuel
The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins will finish up their three-game series Sunday afternoon, and I believe they’ll cash the “over” for the third consecutive game. Cincinnati won 7-4 on Friday over Miami’s No. 1 prospect Eury Perez and won 6-5 Saturday despite staring down the barrel at defending Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. Sunday, they’ll take their swings against lefty Braxton Garrett (6.26 xERA), a pitcher allowing an astronomically high .320 expected batting average against and has surrendered 15 earned runs over his last 9.2 innings of work. Luke Weaver (7.36 ERA) will pitch for the Reds. Weaver has allowed four or more earned runs in every start he’s made this season and is allowing an absurd 52.2% hard-hit rate against. This total should be nine, if not higher – let’s take advantage of two hot offenses taking on scuffling starting pitching.
3:07 p.m. CT: Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Rangers team total OVER 4.5 runs (-125) at Caesars
Sound familiar? This is a bet you can make almost every day on whatever team is taking on the Oakland Athletics. The Rangers cashed this for us Saturday despite the change in starting pitcher for Oakland, and Texas will finally get its shot at A’s lefty JP Sears on Sunday. While Sears has looked promising at times, he’s a high-variance pitcher that has been hit around more often than not. His 4.89 xERA is nothing to write home about, and his left-handedness is a serious problem against the Rangers (third in MLB in wRC+ vs. lefties at 125). Sears has allowed five or more runs in two of his last three starts and allowed five (four earned) against the Rangers on April 21. The bullpen that follows him for the A’s is an abomination, with a 7.11 ERA since April 22 and 6.79 since the season began. The beat goes on, and Texas scores at least five runs for the fourth straight game on Sunday.
3:10 p.m. CT: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Giants moneyline (-130) at DraftKings
The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will wrap up their four-game series Saturday afternoon at Chase Field, and I’m backing the visitors from the Bay Area to pick up a win behind ace Logan Webb. Webb has allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts and completed seven full innings in three of them. With an xERA of 3.56, Logan Webb is a decidedly above-average starting pitcher – and in his career against Arizona, the righty sports a solid 2.65 ERA over 34 career innings. Arizona will counter with rookie Brandon Pfaadt, a pitcher they’re incredibly high on but is struggling with the adjustment to facing Major League hitters. Pfaadt has surrendered a disastrous 13 runs in just 9.2 innings since being called up, including six home runs. A tendency to give up long balls could doom him quickly against the Giants, who rank fourth in MLB in home runs with 61 of them and are tied for second in baseball with a 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. San Francisco should score early and often, and Logan Webb is the most effective member of its rotation at keeping the Giants’ disastrous bullpen out of the game.