Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 15, 2023

May 8, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 15, 2023

After an up-and-down week, Dalton Brown is back with three more picks for Monday’s MLB slate as he hopes to improve on a 68-65 mark overall.

3:10 p.m. CT: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

The Pick: OVER 9 (-118) at BetRivers

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will finally finish up their rain-soaked series from D.C. on Monday afternoon after playing 15 innings across two games on Sunday. Neither bullpen is in great shape here, but that is just one factor leading me to a bet on the over in this spot. Lefty David Peterson (1-5, 7.68 ERA) pitches for New York, a pitcher who has given up four or more earned runs in four straight starts and five of his last six. Peterson also allowed three or more runs in both starts versus Washington last season, and the Nationals sneakily rank ninth in baseball in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Lefty Patrick Corbin pitches for the Nats, and while he’s no longer the auto-fade he was in recent seasons, he remains reliable to surrender at least two or three runs before giving way to a shaky Washington bullpen. New York grades out slightly above average against left-handed pitching in its own right, and Monday afternoon’s forecast calls for 75-degree temperatures and bright sunshine in Washington. Expect both offenses to get going against two of the least effective left-handed starters in baseball, and don’t be surprised if these tired bullpens help our cause later on.

6:45 p.m. CT: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

The Pick: Brewers First 5 Innings moneyline (-115) at FanDuel

For the second consecutive Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers are the beneficiaries of fortuitous scheduling as they’ll take on yet another opponent who played a Sunday Night Baseball road game the night before. St. Louis heads home from Boston to host the Brewers, who are also sending the same pitcher to the mound that manhandled the tired Dodgers last Monday night and now has a full week of rest under his belt: Freddy Peralta. Peralta has been steady this season, and especially lately – he has posted a 2.25 ERA through two starts in May, has completed six innings in three straight outings, and dominated the Cardinals once this season already when he pitched six innings and allowed just one run on April 9. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has not seen similar success. Flaherty has allowed three or more earned runs to score in five consecutive starts, including 10 to the Angels two starts ago. He is walking more batters than 93% of MLB pitchers this season to date and showed his frustration by getting testy with the St. Louis media when asked about his diminishing velocity after his last start. Flaherty is not in a good place right now, and ripe for the picking for a Brewers team with a strong preference for hitting right-handed pitching. Take the Brew Crew in the first five innings and let’s leave the bullpens on the sidelines – well, Milwaukee’s, at least.

8:45 p.m. CT: Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants

The Pick: OVER 8.5 (-105) at FanDuel

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants will kick off a series Monday night at Oracle Park, and both offenses should have plenty of success. Alex Wood starts for San Francisco, but Monday night will really look like more of a bullpen game for the Giants. Wood has pitched just twice in the last month and never more than 2.1 innings, so it is safe to assume he is nowhere near built up to start. His 2.46 ERA looks solid, but it is backed up by a 5.22 xERA that suggests negative regression will hit him hard if he’s allowed to throw enough innings. The San Francisco bullpen that will cover the bulk of Monday night’s game has been a disaster only surpassed by Oakland’s – since April 22, Giants relievers have pitched to an ERA of 6.45. The Giants’ offense should have some success against Phillies starter Bailey Falter, too. Falter (0-6, 5.75 ERA) has faltered repeatedly in recent starts, allowing three or more earned runs in five straight, including five earned runs in his last outing vs. Boston.

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