May 15, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle (9) runs off a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
After a 2-1 Monday, Dalton Brown is back with three more picks on Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Record to date: 70-66
7:40 p.m. CT: Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Rockies team total over 5.5 (-140) at PointsBet
The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies played pure, unmitigated Coorsball on Monday night, with the Rockies emerging victorious, 9-8. Colorado is a difficult place to pitch, especially for a young starter. Hunter Greene learned that lesson the hard way, allowing six earned runs on nine hits on Monday. Cincinnati’s starter for Tuesday is Brandon Williamson, a righty being called up to make his major league debut … at Coors Field. Colorado is a great place for offense, both because of the thin air that causes the ball to soar and the expansive outfield that provides ample opportunities for extra-base hits. It is not a great place for a pitcher’s major league debut, especially not one that has pitched to a 2-4 record with a 6.62 ERA at Triple-A Louisville like Williamson has this season. Totals are usually set around 11.5 at Coors Field, making each team’s implied total in any given game roughly exactly what PointsBet is offering here – five and a half, juiced to the “over.” This is not “any given game,” though – this is Colorado getting its shot at a righty who is making his debut after not seeing success in the minors. The value is clear on the Rockies to soar over a team total of 5.5.
8:40 p.m. CT: Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Diamondbacks team total over 4.5 (-130) at BetMGM
The Oakland Athletics are in action again Tuesday night, and their opponent’s team total is available to bet over four and a half runs. Count me in. The A’s have played 43 games heading into Tuesday night, and 32 times (74.4%) they’ve allowed five or more runs to their opponent. They’re sending Kyle Muller (1-3, 7.34 ERA) to the mound, a pitcher who has been a piñata for opponents in 2023. The lefty has surrendered a 7.75 xERA for the season and allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. He ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed, average exit velocity allowed, xERA, xBA allowed, xSLG allowed, and strikeout rate. He’s also walking more batters than 76% of pitchers. Put simply, he’s being consistently hit hard when contact is made against him, he’s rarely missing bats, and he’s adding fuel to the fire by walking plenty of batters. Oakland’s bullpen, which sports a league-worst-by-a-mile 7.52 ERA since April 22, will follow him into the game. Sometimes, we take what we are given – and when we are given the opportunity to bet an A’s opponent to go over 4.5 runs, we will almost always bet it.
8:45 p.m. CT: Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Phillies moneyline (-112) at FanDuel
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants will continue their three-game series on Tuesday night at Oracle Park, and I’m backing Philadelphia to bounce back and even the series after Monday’s loss. Zack Wheeler will pitch for the Phillies opposite Alex Cobb for San Francisco in a battle of right-handed starters. Alex Cobb has been excellent for San Francisco, especially lately – over his last four starts, he’s completed at least seven scoreless innings in three of them. Still, I’m betting against him in this spot, mostly because he’s due for clear negative regression. Cobb has allowed at least five hits in all of those starts, and in seven straight starts dating back to April 7. His xERA is a pedestrian 3.61 compared to his actual ERA of 1.70, and he’s walked two batters in each of his last two starts as well. Cobb’s statistics are impressive, but there is no indication from his career numbers nor his advanced metrics that he should continue to pitch this effectively. On the other side, Zack Wheeler has posted an xERA lower than Cobb’s current 3.61 mark in six of the last seven seasons, including a 3.38 mark this year. Wheeler dominated a powerful Blue Jays lineup in his last outing, allowing just one run on three hits over seven innings. I favor Wheeler in the starting pitching matchup, but even if I were to concede it as a push, Philadelphia’s bullpen advantage is massive. Philadelphia’s relievers have posted a 3.03 ERA since April 22, while San Francisco’s have posted a 6.49 ERA during that same span, and the Giants will possibly be without closer Camilo Doval, who had to get four outs on Monday. San Francisco is overvalued here because of Cobb’s recent performances, but I’m seeing through it.