Apr 28, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Max Kepler (26) rounds the bases after hitting a home run off Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jordan Lyles (not pictured) during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 2, 2023
After a 2-1 showing on Monday, Dalton Brown is back with four betting picks for Tuesday’s MLB slate as he hopes to improve on a 49-43 mark this season.
6:40 p.m. CT: Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Braves moneyline (+115) at WynnBet
Atlanta at plus-money against Miami? Yes, please. The Braves are heading to South Florida after a doubleheader on Monday in New York, but it isn’t shying me away from this number with the much better of these two teams. Sandy Alcantara has not been himself at all this season for Miami, pitching to a 5.04 ERA supported by an xERA of 4.93. He’s allowed two or more earned runs in four of five starts and three or more earned runs in three of five starts. Atlanta just saw him, and over their last 10.2 innings against Alcantara, the Braves have posted eight earned runs dating back to last September. Bryce Elder has been excellent for the Braves this season on the mound (2.17 ERA), although he is due for some negative regression. Miami pushed across four runs against Elder when he last saw them, but I’d bet against the Fish producing three home runs any day of the week. Atlanta’s bullpen ranks fourth in MLB in xFIP while Miami’s ranks 27th, and Atlanta ranks 15th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while Miami ranks 25th. The Marlins are an unsustainable 10-0 in one-run games, adding to this mistake in pricing that has them favored over the far-superior Braves – let’s make the most of it and take Atlanta to win outright.
6:10 p.m. CT: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
The Picks: Twins First 5 Innings -0.5 (-118) at FanDuel, Twins team total OVER 4.5 runs (-122) at FanDuel
The Minnesota Twins will begin a three-game series with the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, and I’m all over the Twins against struggling righty Michael Kopech. The White Sox starter’s 7.01 ERA is eclipsed only by his 9.86 xERA, and he’s taking on a Twins offense that ranks seventh in baseball with a wRC+ of 110 against right-handed pitching. When Kopech exits, Chicago’s 28th-ranked bullpen by xFIP will enter the game and almost certainly continue surrendering runs to the first-place Twins. With Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota, I’m also confident in the Twins over the game’s first five innings. Ryan has pitched to a 2.56 xERA this season, allowing a run or fewer in three of his five starts this season despite already having faced the Yankees twice, the Red Sox, and the Astros. Chicago ranks just 26th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, so Joe Ryan should cruise here.
8:40 p.m. CT: Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
The Pick: Reds First 5 Innings +0.5 (-110) at FanDuel
The Cincinnati Reds will continue their three-game set with the San Diego Padres Tuesday night from Petco Park, and I’m backing the underdogs to hang around through five innings. Graham Ashcraft has been excellent for the Reds, pitching to a 2.10 ERA while posting above-average numbers across his Baseball Savant profile. Ashcraft has not allowed more than two runs in his five starts this season. Given what we’ve seen from Padres starter Michael Wacha this season, Ashcraft ought to be more than enough to lead Cincinnati to cover this number. Wacha has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three starts – a span of just 13.1 innings – while allowing a whopping 25 hits. His xERA of 6.51 tells us all we need to know – the veteran righty is over the hill, and even a relatively feeble lineup like Cincinnati’s should do enough to keep the game tied or better before the sixth inning.