Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 3, 2023

May 1, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) hits a three run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 3, 2023

Hoping to improve on a 50-46 mark so far this season, Dalton Brown is back with three picks for Wednesday night’s MLB slate.

5:40 p.m. CT: New York Mets at Detroit Tigers (game two)

The Pick: Mets team total OVER 4.5 (-125) at Caesars

The New York Mets and Detroit Tigers were rained out Tuesday night, so they’ll play a doubleheader on Wednesday instead. Max Scherzer returns to the mound for New York, but the pitcher that draws my interest here – to fade, specifically – is Tigers starter, Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his three starts this season and faces a Mets offense Wednesday that ranks ninth in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The righty has yet to record an out in the sixth inning of a game this season and will be followed into the game by a bottom-10 bullpen in MLB by ERA. That bullpen will also likely be tired, especially if the Mets push around struggling lefty Joey Wentz in the day’s first game. Add in expected 15+ mile per hour winds blowing out toward center field, and Wednesday represents an ideal opportunity for New York to light up the scoreboard.

6:10 p.m. CT: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

The Pick: Blue Jays moneyline (-135) at WynnBet

After two straight one-run losses, I’m backing the Toronto Blue Jays to salvage the final game of their three-game set in Boston. Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah has seemingly turned a corner over his last two starts, but I don’t think the betting market has caught up to his improvement after a difficult start to the season. Manoah has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings in those two starts, lowering his ERA more than two runs. When the righty has taken on Boston in his career, he’s been dominant – Manoah is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA against the Red Sox over six starts. In two starts at Fenway, Manoah has allowed just two runs over 12 innings while striking out 12 and only walking one. He is a pitcher with a fiery personality who will embrace the responsibility of helping the Blue Jays avoid a sweep. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has allowed more than four earned runs per start over his last three and is just 1-4 with a 5.83 ERA for his career against Toronto. When the bullpens enter the game, the Blue Jays’ advantage only widens – Toronto’s bullpen ranks second in baseball with a 3.76 xFIP while Boston’s ranks 24th at 4.63. The Blue Jays should be a bigger favorite, especially in a spot where they’re playing to avoid a sweep.

6:45 p.m. CT: Anaheim Angels at St. Louis Cardinals

The Pick: Angels First 5 Innings -0.5 (-105) at BetMGM

After picking up four first-inning runs and cruising to a win Tuesday night, the Angels will look to make it two in a row over a free-falling St. Louis Cardinals team. St. Louis has lost five straight and is off to its worst start since 1973 at 10-20 overall. The Cardinals’ offense has struggled mightily of late, and Shohei Ohtani taking the bump for Anaheim will provide them with zero relief. Ohtani walked a few too many batters over his first three starts of the season but has walked two or fewer in three straight entering Wednesday. When he’s in command, he’s exceptionally hard to score against – Ohtani ranks in the top 10% of MLB pitchers in six different Baseball Savant categories, including expected batting average against and strikeout rate. Miles Mikolas will pitch for St. Louis, a pitcher with a Baseball Savant page that looks completely different. Mikolas owns alarming numbers across the board, including a 6.62 xERA. He pitched well against San Francisco in his last start, going 6.1 innings without allowing a run – but I’m not sold on his turnaround yet. Anaheim shouldn’t need more than a run or two to stake Ohtani to a lead through five innings, and Mikolas has allowed two or more earned runs in five of his last six starts.

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