Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 4, 2023

Apr 23, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (30) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 4, 2023

After a dismal Wednesday night, Dalton Brown is hoping to get back in rhythm and improve on a 50-49 mark this season with three plays during the day Thursday. May the Fourth be with us.

1:10 p.m. CT: Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

The Picks: Orioles -1.5 (+100) at FanDuel, Orioles First 5 Innings -0.5 ( -120) at BetMGM

The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals will complete their three-game series on Thursday afternoon from Kauffman Stadium, and I’m backing Baltimore to win comfortably in the finale. Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is rounding into form quickly as he adjusts to the big leagues with the Orioles, and Thursday’s spot presents him with a soft landing to keep that momentum going. The Royals rank dead-last in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Rodriguez has tossed 10 scoreless innings over his last two starts while striking out 15 and only allowing seven hits. One of my favorite pitchers to bet against, Jordan Lyles, takes the mound for Kansas City. Lyles is sporting an xERA of 6.06 this season and has allowed five, four, four, four, and seven runs over his last five starts, respectively. His Baseball Savant profile reveals hideous advanced metrics across the board, and the Orioles rank a much more respectable sixth in baseball in wRC+ against righties. Baltimore’s bullpen has a massive advantage here as well, ranking third in xFIP compared to Kansas City’s more middling unit. Baltimore’s offense ought to reawaken Thursday, and I anticipate Grayson Rodriguez approaching double-digit strikeouts and handing his back-end relievers a sizable advantage.

2:37 p.m. CT: Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

The Pick: Mariners team total OVER 4.5 (-140) at DraftKings

I’ll gladly drink the minus-140 juice here to take the Mariners to reach five runs Thursday afternoon in their finale with the lowly Athletics. Two straight nights of stellar pitching performances have staked the A’s to leads heading into the final innings, and two straight nights, implosions from Oakland’s bullpen have led to losses. Wednesday night, the Mariners scored a run in the seventh, and a run in the ninth, and five runs in the 10th to run away with a 7-2 win. The A’s, now 6-25 as their MLB-worst record continues to crater, have allowed five or more runs in 21 of their 31 games played this season, and at least four runs in 25 of 31 games. Drew Rucinski will make his second start since 2018 for a desperate A’s pitching staff on Thursday, and his first of the season saw him allow 11 hits in 5.2 innings while surrendering five runs to also-bottom-dwelling Cincinnati. Seattle should have no trouble scoring against Rucinski, but rest assured that if it does, Oakland’s bullpen (6.06 xFIP, dead-last in MLB while second to last is more than 20% better) will undoubtedly assist the Mariners over the finish line with some crooked numbers late. I would comfortably bet this at five, as well.

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