Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 6, 2023

May 3, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) runs home to score against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 6, 2023

After a 2-3 Friday, Dalton Brown is back with three picks on Saturday’s MLB action looking to improve on a 55-52 record overall.

5:40 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds

The Pick: OVER 9 (-110) at FanDuel

The Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds will continue their three-game series after a 5-4 White Sox win on Friday, and I think we’ll see plenty of runs on an 81-degree night by the Ohio River on Wednesday. Young lefty Nick Lodolo pitches for Cincinnati amid a stretch that’s seen him struggle of late, and he’ll have to contend with a White Sox lineup full of right-handed hitters. Lodolo has allowed 27 hits in just 13.2 innings over his last three starts, and has an 8.68 ERA at home this season. Righty Mike Clevinger will pitch for Chicago, a pitcher who has struggled in his own right this season. Clevinger’s Baseball Savant page reads below average both in terms of contact profile and swing-and-miss statistics, and the righty’s 5.50 xERA suggests he’s due for negative regression. Clevinger hasn’t won a start since April 8, and he’s allowed 11 earned runs over his last 13 innings. With two middling bullpens entering the game after these starters and on a hot, humid day in Cincinnati, we should see plenty of runs Saturday.

6:15 p.m. CT: Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

The Pick: OVER 9.5 (-106) at FanDuel

Two of the more explosive offenses in baseball will continue their three-game series Saturday night from Philadelphia as the Phillies host the Boston Red Sox. Boston, now winners of eight straight, continued to hit on all cylinders offensively Friday night, even against previously-dominant Zack Wheeler. Saturday’s pitching matchup ought to have both lineups salivating, as Corey Kluber of the Red Sox will oppose Bailey Falter for Philadelphia. Kluber has struggled mightily this season, a continuation of a trend that has seen him become less effective in recent seasons. The 37-year old now throws his fastball with less velocity than 98% of MLB pitchers, and the results show that he’s struggling to induce soft contact. Kluber has allowed three or more earned runs in four of six starts, is allowing the highest hard-hit rate of his career, and will face a Phillies team that ranks sixth in baseball in wRC+ against righties and just added Bryce Harper back into its lineup earlier this week. Bailey Falter, Philadelphia’s left-handed starter, is not being dealt much easier of a hand against Boston’s top-10 offense against lefties. The Red Sox have pounded out 66 hits over their last five games, winning all of them, and are likely to continue their offensive momentum Saturday. Falter has allowed three or more earned runs in his last four starts, and four or more earned runs in three of four. He’s done well to avoid walks this season, but pitching to contact is resulting in him getting shelled more often than not. On a warm, sunny day at Citizens Bank Park with minimal wind, the ball will carry well and both lineups should produce runs.

7:40 p.m. CT: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

The Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-118) at FanDuel

The Dodgers and Padres will square off in game two of a heated three-game rivalry series from Petco Park on Saturday night. San Diego took the opener 5-2 behind a pair of homers by Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish held down the Dodgers’ offense into the seventh inning. Saturday’s pitching matchup features fireballers on both sides of the mound, and should produce a low-scoring game in the early innings. Dustin May will take the mound for Los Angeles. May boasts a solid 1.05 WHIP over 10 career appearances against San Diego, and a stellar 3.04 ERA on the road at Petco Park. The righty has been a steady force in L.A.’s rotation this season, allowing more than two runs just once over six starts. The Padres rank just 19th in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. For Blake Snell, the matchup with the Dodgers is one he consistently relishes. Los Angeles is struggling against lefties once again in 2023, posting a 22nd-ranked wRC+ of just 89. For his career, Snell has a 2.50 ERA against the Dodgers, and that stat comes without factoring in his multiple impressive Postseason starts against Los Angeles. The lefty has had a rough season overall, but he showed signs of turning a corner by walking nobody in his last start and his ERA is more than a full run better at home than on the road.

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