Apr 19, 2023; Oakland, California, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Mason Miller (57) warms up before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 7, 2023
After a solid 2-1 showing on Saturday’s card, Dalton Brown is back with three more picks on Sunday’s action as he looks to improve on a 57-53 overall record this MLB season.
1:10 p.m. CT: Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
The Pick: Athletics First 5 Innings moneyline (-106) at FanDuel
Ready for a rarity? I’m backing the lowly Oakland A’s to stay red-hot following their first two-game winning streak behind sensational rookie Mason Miller. I won’t hold it against you if you don’t want to watch these two 8-26 teams go at it, but there’s money to be made. Miller was dominant against Seattle in his last start, tossing seven hitless innings – and watching him pitch, the young righty passes the eye test with flying colors in terms of both confidence and talent. Sunday, he gets his opportunity to shut down a Royals lineup that ranks 29th in MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Kansas City is sending lefty Ryan Yarbrough to the mound, a pitcher that has seemingly gone off the rails since leaving Tampa Bay. Yarbrough tops out around 88 miles per hour and hardly strikes anyone out – instead, he relies on soft contact to get outs, which is not working. He’s pitched to an abysmal 7.40 ERA this season, and it’s backed up with a 6.30 xERA. Pitching to contact is probably a bad idea at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday anyway, with temperatures in the mid-80s and winds blowing 15-20 mph out to center field expected. Quietly, Oakland’s offense ranks eighth in baseball with a stellar 116 wRC+ against lefties this season. Expect the A’s to chase Yarbrough early and Mason Miller to hold down the fort – and by playing just the first five innings, we get to avoid the myriad of possibilities that exist when these two sloppy bullpens enter the game.
1:15 p.m. CT: Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: OVER 9 (-120) at Caesars
The St. Louis Cardinals coughed up yet another lead Saturday to lose their eighth in a row, and they’ll look to avoid a home sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers on Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. Both teams should continue to see offensive success in this series that has already produced back-to-back overs on a hot, humid day in St. Louis. Detroit’s offense comes alive against left-handed pitching, and it’ll get its shot at a vulnerable southpaw in Steven Matz on Sunday. Matz was hammered early by the Angels in his last start, surrendering four runs before he could record three outs in the top of the first inning. His 6.39 ERA this season tells the story, as he’s allowed four or more earned runs in four of his six starts in 2023. Add in 15 walks in 31 innings of work, and this is a pitcher who is constantly surrounded by traffic and consistently allowing big innings. Alex Faedo will pitch for the first time this season for Detroit, a righty who looked completely overmatched at the big league level last season. Faedo walked more batters than 83% of starters, gave up harder contact than 97% of starters, and induced hitters to chase fewer pitches outside the zone than 94% of starters last season, and his results reflected it. Despite their struggles, the Cardinals remain above average (wRC+ of 104) against right-handed pitching, and they’ve scored an average of five runs per game over their last four. On a hot day by the Mississippi River, the ball ought to be flying and plenty of runs should be scored Sunday afternoon.
3:10 p.m. CT: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Reds moneyline (-120) at WynnBet
The Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds will play the rubber match of their three-game set at an awkwardly-late afternoon start time at Great American Ball Park on Sunday, and I’m backing the home team to come away victorious. Righty Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to back across the National League – the market isn’t catching up yet, but he has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season. Ashcraft takes on a White Sox lineup that prefers to hit against lefties anyhow, so I like his chances to keep the positive momentum going. Michael Kopech pitches for Chicago, and while the hard-throwing righty took a flashy no-hitter into the sixth inning against the Twins last time out, he still walked five and hardly lowered his terrible 8.14 xERA at all. His Baseball Savant metrics remain very poor, and I’m far from bought-in after an outlier performance in his last start. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been better of late, too – since April 22, the Reds have pitched to MLB’s 13th-best ERA out of the bullpen compared to Chicago’s ranking of 25th in that category.