Gallery Sports’ Betting Picks for May 9, 2023

Dalton Brown kicked off the week with a 3-0 Monday night, and he’s hoping to keep the positive momentum going and improve on his 61-55 MLB record with three plays for Tuesday.

5:10 p.m. CT: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

The Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-120) at Caesars

The Detroit Tigers will look to make it two in a row on the road in Cleveland on Tuesday night as they take on starter Shane Bieber and the Guardians. Detroit is playing excellent ball of late, winning six of seven, and growing more and more confident as its young lineup comes alive. The Tigers have scored five or more runs in each of those wins, including six runs on Monday despite entering the contest as big underdogs. I like their chances to continue trending in the right direction against Shane Bieber, a pitcher whose name still carries an ace’s weight but who is due for steep negative regression. Bieber’s 2.96 ERA and 2-1 record look great at first glance, but the righty is pitching to an ugly 4.86 xERA and has allowed two or more earned runs in six straight starts, along with five or more hits in four of his last five. Bieber is allowing harder-hit contact on average than 97% of pitchers by exit velocity, striking batters out at a lower rate than 83% of pitchers, and allowing a career-worst .281 xBA. He’s cruising for a bruising, and Detroit’s red-hot lineup could give him one on Tuesday. Tigers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has mixed excellent starts with starts in which he’s been shellacked, so what comes next is anyone’s guess – but after seven innings of one-run ball vs. the Mets last week, I’m willing to bet that this high-variance pitcher skews our way in this spot.

5:35 p.m. CT: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

The Pick: Rays moneyline (-120) at WynnBet

The Tampa Bay Rays improved to 29-7 with a win at Baltimore on Monday night, and I believe they’ll be baseball’s first team to 30 wins after another victory on Tuesday. Righty Zach Eflin will pitch for Tampa Bay, a pitcher whose potential outweighed his actual performance during his time in Philadelphia but is starting to blossom under the Rays’ excellent pitching coaching. Eflin tossed seven scoreless frames in his last start against the Pirates with 10 strikeouts and boasts a 3.07 xERA that legitimizes his 2.25 actual ERA. He’ll take on a Baltimore lineup that ranks 15th in Major League Baseball against right-handed pitching in wRC+. On the other side, Grayson Rodriguez will pitch for the O’s – and after he coughed up an 8-1 lead in his last start to Kansas City’s usually-punchless offense, I’m officially concerned about the young right-hander. Rodriguez has posted wildly inconsistent results this season, despite facing mostly lackluster lineups. After facing the Tigers twice and the Royals in his last three starts, Tampa Bay’s explosive attack (their wRC+ 139 vs. RHPs leads baseball) could cause him major issues. The Rays are the better of these two in Tuesday’s platoon split, have the starting pitcher trending in the more positive direction toeing the rubber, and have an excellent bullpen – this price is too cheap for what has been the best team in baseball to date.

6:40 p.m. CT: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

The Pick: Cubs moneyline (-120) at DraftKings

The Chicago Cubs are looking to bounce back after dropping Monday night’s opener against St. Louis, and I believe they’re in a good position to do so. The Cardinals are sending struggling righty Jack Flaherty to the mound, a pitcher ripe for the taking in his current form. Flaherty has allowed an insane 22 earned runs over his last four starts, including 10 runs his last time out against Anaheim. The righty’s xERA is now up to 5.40, and Chicago ranks ninth in Major League Baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Jameson Taillon, an excellent candidate for positive regression when comparing his 5.29 ERA to his 3.35 xERA, will pitch for Chicago in a prime bounce-back spot. Taillon has been significantly more steady this season than Flaherty and is backed by the stronger of these two bullpens of late – since April 22, the Cubs’ bullpen ranks eighth in baseball in ERA while the Cardinals’ pen ranks 21st. St. Louis has lost eight of its last 10, and I don’t believe this team is out of the woods yet – especially not with Flaherty heading back to the mound.